How a Sardine Gets From the Ocean to a Can
Becca Milstein, founder of premium tinned-fish brand Fishwife, walks through the actual mechanics of the global sardine shortage and argues it's primarily a climate/migration story, not overfishing — Morocco's frozen-sardine export ban (it still exports canned) has cut off roughly 90% of the raw material Spanish canneries relied on, and U.S. retail sardine shelves have emptied as a result. No public tickers or price targets here: this is a supply-chain and food-inflation read, not a market call. Notable data points: Fishwife's sardine sales are running 4-5x normal velocity since December, tariffs (15% EU duty since April 2025, layered atop a pre-existing 35% tuna-in-olive-oil duty) are compressing margins by millions of dollars, and Milstein expects sardine prices to rise further as the only two MSC-certified sardine fisheries (Cornish, Iberian) get more competitive.
The core claim: the sardine shortage making headlines is real in effect but likely climate-driven, not primarily an overfishing story — and the proximate cause of U.S. shelf shortages is a Moroccan export policy, not a collapse in the fish itself. Milstein, whose Fishwife sources from Cornish and Iberian fisheries (not Morocco), says Morocco banned exports of frozen sardines — not canned — while its catch had already fallen roughly 46% since 2023. Spain had sourced about 90% of the raw material for its sardine canneries from Morocco; with that supply constrained, Spanish canneries are short, and the scarcity has rippled into U.S. retail, where sardine-category shelves have emptied and consumers have begun trading up to premium alternatives.
The mechanism: forage fish like sardines, anchovies, and mackerel are highly sensitive to water temperature. Warming waters in the Mid-Atlantic may be pushing sardines to migrate to colder or deeper water that commercial fleets can't easily reach — meaning the fish may not be gone, just relocated. Warmer water can also thin out plankton (less fatty, less caloric), producing leaner sardines less desirable to processors, and can draw in more predators competing for the same stock. Milstein was explicit that these are competing, unproven theories rather than settled causes: "they're just that, they're theories," contributing in combination rather than any single factor dominating. She noted fisheries science moves slowly relative to how fast market narratives form.
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On the record
| Claim | Speaker | Expression | Horizon | Hedge | At | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milstein argues the global sardine shortage is primarily driven by climate-related factors (warming waters causing migration, thinner plankton, more predators) rather than overfishing, noting the relevant fishery carries only a 'yellow' (not red) sustainability rating with strong enforcement in place, though she stresses these climate theories remain unproven and likely combine rather than any single cause dominating. | Becca Milstein | — | — | hedged | 00:43:41 | OPEN |
| Milstein expects Fishwife's sardine prices to rise further as the two remaining MSC-certified sardine fisheries (Cornish and Iberian) that supply the company become more competitively sourced amid the broader shortage, though she frames this as an assumption rather than a firm commitment. | Becca Milstein | Fishwife sardine retail price | — | hedged | 00:46:15 | OPEN |