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Sep 3, 2026 · 37m · 3 min read
Stanford finance professor Darrell Duffie argues the surge in long-end Treasury yields is a story of supply and demand, not inflation risk: with foreign central banks no longer adding to Treasury holdings, ballooning issuance (the Treasury market has grown from ~$18 trillion a decade ago to $31-32 trillion now, adding roughly $2 trillion a year) is being absorbed only by yield-sensitive domestic funds and insurers who need higher compensation to take it on. He dismisses the current Treasury buyback program — a few billion dollars against a $31 trillion market — as too small to move yields ("a micro twist"), says real buyback firepower would need to be in the hundreds of billions, and predicts the Fed's balance-sheet task force (Stein, Rajan, Dinan) will recommend swapping long-dated Treasuries and MBS for bills to cut the Fed's interest-expense volatility.
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