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Aug 29, 2026 · 1h 07m · 4 min read
Alan Dunne frames the last several weeks — the rare US yen intervention, Warsh's rocky Jackson Hole run-up, Bessent's bond-market tinkering — as symptoms of three structural "fractures" (sticky inflation, debt-sustainability/fiscal dominance, fraying institutional norms) that he and colleagues laid out in a prior paper, and argues these fractures explain why trend-following has had a strong decade almost entirely by shorting bonds rather than shorting equities. His level to watch: the 10-year Treasury yield breaking above roughly 5%, which he calls the possible trigger for both renewed Treasury intervention and, eventually, an equity-market crack. On performance, SG Trend was up 1.19% in August (9.19% YTD) and SG CTA up 1.34% (9.55% YTD) versus the S&P 500's 2.58% (12.97% YTD); on valuation, he flags AQR's forecast of 3.9% real US equity returns over 5-10 years against GMO's -7.2% real in a "normal-rate" scenario — a gap he says argues for larger strategic allocations to trend regardless of which forecast is right.
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