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Sep 12, 2026 · 1h 10m · 3 min read
Robert Friedland argues the world is entering a structural, multi-decade copper and critical-minerals shortage that current mining supply cannot close, driven by collapsing ore grades, chronic capital starvation caused by flawed NPV valuation models, and surging demand from electrification, AI data centers, and defense. Concrete data points: the world's largest copper mine, Escondida, will see its ore grade fall from 0.8% to 0.4% within two years; sulfuric acid (needed to leach ~25% of world copper) has gone from $150/ton to over $1,000/ton in eight months amid the Strait of Hormuz disruption; and mining equipment lead times have stretched to 8-10 years "if ever." He declines to take a position on pending US copper tariffs but notes a 30% tariff would lift US copper economics to roughly $7.80/lb, and flags China's September 24 state visit as a genuine fork in the road for the critical-minerals standoff.
This is the super-short version — click for the full summary →